Jim J Davidson August 27, 2023
As an avid follower of developments in the property market, I recently received an enlightening email from Akhil Patel. Akhil Patel, a UK-based expert in property cycles and...
As an avid follower of developments in the property market, I recently received an enlightening email from Akhil Patel. Akhil Patel, a UK-based expert in property cycles and investments, has been on my radar since the early 2010s when he published a newsletter discussing the intriguing concept of the 18-year property cycle. What caught my attention at the time was how his analysis of this philosophy coincided with my own personal experience of the property market and some of the conclusions he reached were the same as mine, although I had not made the intellectual connection that this a 18 property cycle trend.
Akhil Patel's philosophy about the property market differs significantly from the narratives echoed by news outlets and even most popular property investors with YouTube channels. While many voices predict a looming market crash, citing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis and an impending Armageddon, Patel's contrarian viewpoint offers a refreshing alternative.
Having been involved in the property industry since 1973, I've witnessed first hand the ebbs and flows of the market. Patel's perspective resonated with me because it aligns with my personal experiences and observations. His philosophy doesn't just rest on surface-level analysis; it delves deep into the cyclical nature of the property market and provides a credible framework for understanding its dynamics.
Patel sheds light on the current economic landscape, challenging the narrative of an imminent catastrophe. While news outlets highlight rising costs of living, inflation, and high interest rates, Patel's view is more nuanced. He points out that historical contexts reveal that high inflation and interest rates have been faced before, and the media's focus on struggling individuals isn't necessarily new. It's important to note that the media often thrives on sensationalizing negative stories.
Interestingly, Patel's observations of major cities show that economic activity remains robust. People are still spending money on holidays, dining out, entertainment, and more. While challenges undoubtedly exist, they aren't entirely new, and the portrayal of widespread crisis might not be fully accurate.
One compelling aspect of Patel's perspective is his analysis of savings rates. In the UK, the savings rate has actually increased over recent years. The pandemic played a role in this trend, prompting people to re-evaluate their spending habits. As restrictions lifted, people found they could save money by cutting unnecessary expenses. This increased savings rate can influence the property market.
Why, then, is the property market currently experiencing a slowdown? Patel's analysis points to several factors. Some sellers who aren't in a rush to sell are holding out for prices they believe their properties are worth. Additionally, some individuals fixed their mortgages for extended periods (two to five years), anticipating the cost of living crisis. As a result, the full impact of these decisions might not have materialized yet. Patel anticipates that as people realize prices aren't dropping as expected, pent-up demand could spark a resurgence in the property market.
Looking forward, Patel's perspective suggests that the property market is heading into a boom period. This period is expected to last until around 2026, followed by a subsequent crash. This is part of the 18-year property cycle that he's studied extensively. While the extent of the boom remains uncertain, the evidence from other regions, such as the U.S., indicates that the property market could experience an upsurge.
If you're intrigued by these insights, I strongly recommend delving into Patel's book, "The Wealth Advantage." This book provides a roadmap for navigating the property market's cyclical nature and offers valuable insights applicable to both property and stock market investments. Patel's unique perspective challenges conventional wisdom and equips readers with the tools to cut through media noise and make informed investment decisions.
I'm excited to share that Akhil Patel has agreed to join me for an interview on my channel this September. His depth of knowledge and insights promise to be a valuable addition to the ongoing discourse on property market trends. If you're keen on gaining a deeper understanding of economic cycles and their impact on investments, make sure to subscribe to my channel to catch this upcoming interview.
In conclusion, Akhil Patel's contrarian philosophy challenges prevailing narratives and offers a fresh perspective on the property market. His book, "The Wealth Advantage," provides a roadmap for understanding economic cycles and making informed investment decisions. As we move into a potentially transformative period for the property market, Patel's insights offer both caution and hope, reminding us that history often holds the key to navigating uncertain times.
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